Laws of Software Engineering · Pattern
Pattern
Hype Cycle / Amara's Law
We overestimate how much a new technology will change things in the short term. We underestimate how much it will change things in the long term.
How to use it. For any adoption decision, run two scenarios: what changes in two years, and what changes in five. The answers are often different.
How it gets misused. Used to justify any bet on the future. Amara does not say which technologies will pay off, only that some will, eventually.
Related
- Pattern Crossing the Chasm There is a gap between early adopters of a new technology and the mainstream market. Most new products die in it.
- Saying The Future Is Already Here (Gibson) The future is already here. It is just not evenly distributed.
Clusters
- The Adoption cluster - Why technology arrives unevenly, and what to do about it.